专访|美拟退出《武器贸易条约》,中俄如何应对？

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2019年是中华人民共和国成立70周年，也是中俄建交70周年。为了庆祝这一重要时刻，China Focus采访了俄罗斯科学院欧洲研究所高级研究员鲍里斯•古斯列多夫。他分享了自己对于5月4日结束的中俄“海上联合—2019”军事演习、俄罗斯总统普京和朝鲜最高领导人金正恩的首次会晤等时事热点，以及中俄两国未来的发展等话题的看法。

来源：微信公众号“ChinaFocus聚焦中国 （China_Focus）”

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美国将要退出《武器贸易条约》，对欧亚大陆来说十分危险。因此，中俄在军事领域的合作应更加紧密，更加积极地向世界证明两国并非是具有侵略性的国家。

现在我们正处于非常复杂的局势中，几个主要的政治角色在经济和政治领域有很多冲突。基于此，像“一带一路”这样和平、非军事、只强调经济和人道主义的倡议显得非常重要。我们需要团结那些不想卷入军事冲突、人道主义冲突和经济冲突的人们。

现在世界进入了多极化体系，中国应该是这个新体系的支柱之一。但是中国需要一定时间才能在多极化体系中成为一个真正的政治领导者。我希望中国的发展是世界的福音，新世界体系中能够出现更多像“一带一路”这样和平人道的倡议。

China Focus: 

您如何看待4月29日至5月4日举行的中俄“海上联合—2019”军事演习?

What do you think of the  "Joint Sea-2019" exercise from April 29 to May 4 by China and Russia?

鲍里斯•古斯列多夫：

中俄在军事领域关系非常好。俄罗斯是这一领域处于世界领先地位的国家之一。这种合作应该继续发展。众所周知，特朗普表示美国将退出《武器贸易条约》。我认为这很奇怪，因为世界需要一个军事领域框架。如果美国退出这一协定，那么世界将会陷入危险的境地。

Boris Guseletov: In terms of the military, China and Russia have very good relations. Russia is one of the world leaders in this field and this cooperation should develop. As you know, President Trump decided that the United States will leave the UN Arms Trade treaty (ATT). From my point of view, it's very strange because the world needs a framework for this field. If the United States leaves the ATT, then it's very dangerous for the world.

“海上联合2019”演习于4月29日至5月4日举行，重点是联合海上防御。【图片/新华社】

The "Joint Sea-2019" exercise runs from April 29 to May 4, and focuses on joint sea defense. [Photo/Xinhua]

为了让世界保持和平友好，俄中应该反对美国的武器政策，因此两国之间的军事关系非常重要。

This is why relations between Russia and China in this field are very important because they should act against the United States' policy on arms so the world continue to be a more peaceful and friendly place. 

美国领导人现在在策划一些非常激进的军事政策，他们将要退出《武器贸易条约》，这一点对欧洲和亚洲大陆来说十分危险。因此，我认为俄中在军事领域的合作应该更加紧密，更加积极地向世界证明两国并非是具有侵略性的国家。我们不想和其他国家发生军事冲突，我们更喜欢与其他国家和人民建立和平的关系。

America's leadership is now pursuing a very aggressive military policy. They will leave the ATT and it's very dangerous for Europeans and Asians. For this reason, I think Russia and China should become close in this field and actively demonstrate to the world that they are not aggressive countries. We don't want to have military conflict with other countries. We prefer peaceful development and peaceful relations with other countries and other people.

China Focus: 

普京总统已经会见了朝鲜领导人金正恩，您如何评价这次会见？

President Vladimir Putin met with the DPRK top leader Kim Jong-un on April 25. How do you evaluate the result of their meeting?

鲍里斯•古斯列多夫：

我知道这是朝鲜和俄罗斯领导人之间的第一次大型会晤，但现在评估其结果为时尚早，因为他们只是笼统地讨论了俄罗斯和朝鲜之间未来的合作。

Boris Guseletov: I know it was the first big meeting between the leader of DPRK and Russia, but it's very complicated to evaluate the result of this meeting because they just generally discussed thefuture cooperation between each other.

2019年4月26日，朝鲜最高领导人金正恩结束了对俄罗斯的首次访问，从符拉迪沃斯托克出发启程回国。图为在火车站参加告别仪式。

DPRK's top leader Kim Jong-un returned home by train after concluding his first visit to Russia. Photo taken on April 26, 2019 shows Kim Jong-un takes part in a farewell ceremony at a railway station as he departs from Vladivostok, Russia.

当然，他们讨论了朝鲜半岛无核化的事宜，不过具体的谈论结果还有待观察。这目前仅仅只是一次谈论，因为朝鲜领导人采取了多方位外交战略。金正恩同特朗普举行会晤，与中国关系良好，现在又想同俄罗斯建立联系。

Of course, they would have discussed the possibility of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, but we should wait for the result of this discussion. It was just a discussion because currently the leader of DPRK, Kim Jong-un, has multiple political international policies. He has had discussions with Trump, he has good relations with China and now he would like to establish contact with Russia.

我认为普京和金正恩之间的首次会晤只是朝这个方向迈出的第一步。我们需要朝鲜半岛保持和平局势。

I think that this first meeting between Putin and Kim Jong-un is just the first step in doing this. And we need a peaceful situation in the Korean peninsula.

China Focus：

“一带一路”倡议对全球化有何贡献？

What's your take on the Belt and Road Initiative's contribution to globalization?

鲍里斯•古斯列多夫：

在我看来，“一带一路”倡议对世界发展非常重要，因为现在我们正处于非常复杂的局势中。美国、欧盟、中国和俄罗斯，这几个主要政治角色之间的关系并没有那么好。因为它们在经济和政治领域有很多冲突，部分角色之间还相互制裁。

Boris Guseletov: From my point of view, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is very important globally because currently our world is in a very complicated situation. Between the main political actors, the United States, European Union, China and Russia, their relationships are not very good. There is a lot of conflict between these actors economically and politically. There are also sanctions between some of these actors.

基于此，像“一带一路”这样和平、非军事、只强调经济和人道主义的倡议显得非常重要。我们需要团结那些不想卷入军事冲突、人道主义冲突和经济冲突的人们。我们需要一个没有制裁的世界，一个和平的世界。

For this reason, the Belt and Road Initiative, this very peaceful, non-military, economic and humanitarian initiative, is very important because I think our world needs more initiatives and projects like this. We need to unite people who don't want to be involved in military conflict, humanitarian conflict, economic conflict. We need a world without sanctions and we need a peaceful world. 

2019年4月25日，第二届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛在北京举行。图为位于北京市中心为高峰论坛制作的展品。

A display in downtown Beijing for the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation on April 25, 2019. 

我认为这一倡议对年轻一代也非常重要，我们应该向俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和其他国家解释这项倡议的主要目标是什么，这一举措对各国和年轻人自身有什么好处。

I think that this initiative is very important for the younger generation. We should explain to Russian, Kazakhstanis, Kyrgyz, Uzbekistanis, and others the main goals of this initiative and explain what the benefits are for their countries and for themselves. 

我完全支持这项倡议。我认为，如果更多的国家、组织和民众真正参与进来，世界会变得更好。

I totally support BRI and I think if more countries, more organizations and more people were involved in it then it would be even better for our world. 

China Focus：

中亚国家如何从“一带一路”倡议中受益？中国和俄罗斯是如何帮助这些国家的？

How has Central Asia benefited from the Belt and Road Initiative and how have China and Russia helped these countries?

鲍里斯•古斯列多夫：

中亚现在的情况不容乐观，因为这个地区的许多国家，比如土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦，都很贫穷。这些国家需要像俄罗斯和中国这样的“一带一路”倡议主要参与者的经济支持。

Boris Guseletov: Central Asia is currently in a difficult situation because many of the countries in this region are very poor, for example, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan. These countries need economic help from the main actors in the region like Russia and China.

塔吉克斯坦第一条铁路举行通车典礼，中方企业参与建设。 

The opening ceremony of Tajikistan's first railway was held with the participation of Chinese enterprises.

这些国家的政府试图帮助自己的人民，但却缺乏财政支持。中国和俄罗斯应当帮助这些国家走正确的发展道路。

Governments of these countries are trying to help their people but they don't have the finances. Chinese and Russian should help these countries to develop in the right way. 

China Focus：

如何看待中国对全球治理的贡献？

What is your take on China's contribution to global governance?

鲍里斯•古斯列多夫：

这是一个很难回答的问题，因为现在的世界局面很复杂。第二次世界大战后，世界出现了以两个阵营为主的两极分化——以苏联为首的社会主义阵营和以美国为首的资本主义阵营。这种格局在苏联解体后崩溃了。

Boris Guseletov: This is a very complicated issue, because the world is currently in a difficult situation. After the Second World War, we had a bi-polar-world, with two big actors——the Soviet Union and its supporters, and the United States. This kind of world system collapsed after the Soviet Union disappeared.

在那以后，又出现了美国称霸的单极化世界。但是我和其他学者认为，这样的格局也已经结束了。现在世界进入了多极化体系。当然，中国应该是这个新体系的支柱之一。我们看到，在习近平成为中国的领导人之后，中国在各个领域都更加活跃，并努力在经济和政治领域发挥更加积极的作用。

After that, we had a hegemonic system, with the United States as the main actor. But from my point of view and the view of many academicians, this type of world system has also finished. Now, it is a multi-polar system. China, of course, should be one of the poles of this new system and we have seen that since President Xi Jinping became the leader of this country, China has been more active in all fields and tried to play a more active role economically and politically. 

2018年4月6日，驻黎巴嫩维和部队官兵在黎巴嫩南部汉尼亚村举行的授勋仪式上列队。【图片/新华社】

Chinese peacekeepers to Lebanon parade at a medal-awarding ceremony at a camp in Hanniyah village in southern Lebanon, on April 6, 2018. [Photo/Xinhua]

但是中国需要一定时间才能在多极化体系中成为一个真正的政治领导者。我希望中国的发展是世界的福音，新世界体系中能够出现更多像“一带一路”这样和平人道的倡议。也许在未来的五到十年里，中国与美国、欧盟、俄罗斯，也许还有其他国家和地区一起，会成为新世界体系的极点之一。我也希望这个新的世界体系更稳定，更和平，更有助于人类的发展。

But China needs time to become a real political actor in this field. I hope China is a gift to the world and that the new systems of cooperation like Belt and Road, will be more peaceful, and more humanitarian. Maybe during the next five to ten years, China will become one of the poles of this new world system, together with United States, the European Union, Russia and maybe some other countries and regions. And I hope that this new world system will be more stable, more peaceful, and help people develop more.

China Focus：

如何评价七十年来的中俄关系？对两国未来发展有什么期望？

How would you evaluate China and Russia's relationship over the past seventy years and how will their relationship develop in the future?

鲍里斯•古斯列多夫：

今年是中俄建交70周年，两国关系自二战结束以来经历了不同时期。一开始，俄中关系很好，并在经济上支持中国，但后来在前苏联领导人赫鲁晓夫的领导下，我们的关系冷淡下来，直至苏联解体。

Boris Guseletov: I think Russia and China's relationship, which is celebrating seventy years of diplomatic relations this year, has gone through different periods since the end of the Second World War. In the beginning, we had very good relations and supported China economically but then it cooled during Khrushchev's leadership, until the Soviet Union collapsed.

现在，两国正处于非常和平友好的时期。我们在经济和政治上都保持着良好的关系，但也存在一些问题。首先，俄罗斯的经济形势不好。如果对比俄罗斯和中国，你会发现中国现在是更强大的经济参与者。俄中在政治和军事上有良好的合作机会，但两国更应该发展经济关系，建立平衡。

Now, we are experiencing a new period of good relations which are very peaceful and very friendly. We have a good relationship economically, politically but there are some problems. Firstly, the economic situation in Russia is not good. If you compare Russia and China, China is now the stronger economic actor. Russia has good opportunities for cooperation with China politically and militarily, but they should develop their economic relations to create a balance between the two countries. 

这种关系应该以积极的方式发展。如果俄罗斯和中国能够在“一带一路”建设上开展合作，或者将“一带一路”倡议和俄罗斯欧亚经济联盟倡议结合，对俄罗斯、对俄罗斯人民，对世界都有好处。

This relationship should develop in a positive way. If Russia and China can cooperate on Belt and Road Initiative or combine it with Russian Eurasian Economic Union initiative, it will be better for Russia, for our people and for the world.

许多国际学者认为，世界将发展成为一个多极体系，俄罗斯和中国应该在这个新体系中发挥非常重要的作用。我们有不同的文化、不同的经济和政治水平，但是俄中两国对于建立一个没有制裁和冲突的和平世界的愿景是相同的。因此我们之间的合作十分必要。

Many international academicians think that the world is going to become a multipolar system and Russia and China should play a very important role in this new system. We have different cultures, we have different economic levels and political levels, but Russia and China share the same approach to developing a peaceful world without sanctions and conflict. For this reason, I think our cooperation is very important.

China Focus：

今年也是中华人民共和国成立70周年。您如何评价中国过去70年的发展？

This year also marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. How would you evaluate China's development over the past seventy years?

鲍里斯•古斯列多夫：

我认为中国在这70年里经历了不同的发展时期。

Boris Guseletov: I think that China has gone through different periods of development during these seventy years. 

但现在中国是世界上两个最大的全球经济参与者之一。中国应该继续沿着这条道路前进，不仅要发展经济，而且要更多地参与国际关系，参与世界政治，本着人道主义精神与其他国家共同合作，帮助贫困国家发展。

But now China is one of the two biggest global economic players in the world. China should continue moving forward on this road of not only developing its economy but also being more involved in international relations, in world politics, working with other countries in humanitarianism to help poor countries develop.

China Focus: 

您对中国的未来有什么期望？有什么祝语要送给中国吗？

What is your expectation for China's future? Could you give us a celebratory message for China?

鲍里斯•古斯列多夫：

我相信中国在不久的将来会发展得非常好。中国新的领导层一方面努力保持中国传统的政治与文化，另一方面给予了中国现代化的机会，让中国成为世界上两大经济体之一。因此，我希望中国保持这个发展方向，更加开放，更加积极地在国际领域帮助其他国家共同发展。

Boris Guseletov: I believe that China's development in the near future will be very good. China's new leadership has tried to keep on the one hand, the old traditions of Chinese politics and culture, whilst on the other hand, give a chance to make China more modern and give China a chance to be one of the two best economic players in the world. For this reason, I wish the Chinese people to keep this destination, to be more open, more active in the international field and to help other countries develop.

本文仅代表作者观点，图片来自网络

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